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Star Gate Log 016: BTC Weakness, Trade Strength (Not Rotation) - ETH Strength.

SG016: Signal: Rotation is a lens; trend is the trade. BTC failed ~117k and slid toward ~110k; watching a bounce to ~117k or drift to ~101k. I’ll read BTC.D/ETHBTC to track flow and take only setups that earn 2:1+. Counter-trend ideas get sub-2:1 targets and smaller risk.

Strata Trader

• 4 min read
Star Gate Log 016: BTC Weakness, Trade Strength (Not Rotation) - ETH Strength.
At altitude above the Gravitational Corridor, the High Ridge glints ahead, the Mid Band lies underwing, and the Lower Shelf/Fault Line falls away below, the visible drop line. Fuel reserves steady, checklist green: rotation is a lens, trend is the trade. Awaiting band reclaim to climb 2:1+ or pivot.

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🌍 Macro Terrain Assessment

BTC Monthly: Long-term uptrend holds while August steps back below July’s close (~111k). The pattern reads consolidation, not collapse. Key signals: hold 110k and rotate higher, or break it and invite a deeper September test lower toward 108k - 101k.
BTC weekly chart: price broke the weekly uptrend and is consolidating sideways. Currently, prices are pulling back and consolidating slightly lower. Last week’s battle was between ~117 to ~110k, and this week a sharp contrast from the previous week 114k to 108k. This structure appears to have slight bearish momentum.
BTC Daily: Momentum broke, rebound rejected near ~117k (50MA). Price is drifting towards the lower edge of the Gravitational Corridor i.e. ~111k to ~101k. Hold ≥108k and it’s constructive consolidation; lose 108k and 101k is the next high-prob defense. Structure: sideways with distribution risk.
BTC.D Daily: Dominance is falling while BTC also softens, rotation within crypto (ETH leading on a relative basis). ETHBTC has been climbing off its pivot, confirming the shift. Rotation bias holds while BTC.D makes lower highs; a sharp BTC.D rebound would weaken the case. I think there is exhaustion in the current trend.

⚖️Levels of Acceptance

📊 BTC

  • Bull Zone (updated): Daily closes ≥ 106k and higher; brief ~105k to ~100k probes (wicks) acceptable.
  • Bear Pivot (updated): Daily close < 100k - exit longs, prepare downside playbook.

📊 BTC.D Interpretation

  • BTC.D 58.06%: Bitcoin’s slice of the crypto pie is trending down, but I see signs of a possible bounce.

♕ Playbook:

  • If BTC.D rises and ETHBTC drops down, keep ETH risk light or hedged (short).
  • Rotation flip signals: ETH.D increases up and ETHBTC floats a higher low, higher high (long).

📊 Key Positions Snapshot:

ETHBTC Daily Chart: ETHBTC is still in a confirmed uptrend, with MA alignment signaling a strength. The rotation has been strong but faced some strong resistance near 0.04 as high as ~0.043. We might still see a pullback, as long as ~0.03 holds, the uptrend structure remains intact.
ETH Daily Chart: Price is ~4600, supported by a strong bounce from the ~4300 level (20MA). Will sell into any price pumps higher, aiming to lock a higher short cost basis. Long-term bias remains bullish, with potential for brief cooling before the next leg higher.

📡Current Snapshot:

  • Trade Strategy: Counter Trend Retest of 9MA.
  • Trade Type: Short @ 4701.09
  • Target: 2:1 RR - Closed at 1:1.
  • In Profit: Yes
  • Fuel Reserve Ratio: N/A
  • Status: Closed.

🔭Current Focus:

  • Trade Strategy: Near Term Short Bias - Sell Into Price Pumps.
  • Trade Type: Short @ ~4953.98
  • In Profit: N/A
  • Fuel Reserve Ratio: 0% LTV
  • Status: Monitoring.

📝Field Note: Execution Observations

Being with the trend isn’t enough. Without a break-retest or higher-low at a key level, even tiny risk is low-quality risk.

My plan held in that I kept risk small, placed a defined stop, and honored it. It bent when I treated “with the trend” as enough to enter a small size became a permission slip. I took a long without confirmation and was stopped near ~4300. Having a stop didn’t translate into a real 2:1 setup. The lesson: size is not confirmation. Only enter after a clear level reclaim and higher-low with a mapped 2:1+. If I want to experiment, I’ll budget it on simulation until the checklist is met.

Multiple Biases Identified: My mid-flight pull was a blend of action bias and FOMO disguised as “I’m with the trend.” Regret-aversion nudged me to take a small probe so I wouldn’t miss the next leg, turning small size into a permission slip. I anchored to the higher-timeframe uptrend and then went looking for confirmation after entry, selectively reading price to validate the trade. Underneath it was a quiet prove-I’m-right impulse rather than wait-for-structure discipline.

♾ Continuous Improvement (Towards Infinity)

+1% upgrade each log.

  • 🎯Tactical Execution: Identified target levels, for entry and managing risk to reward levels. Implementing an agile risk to reward strategy both for long and short trade setups.
  • 🌡Emotional Calibration: Monitoring price with patience, waiting for the setup is confirmation. Selling into strength while adjusting for short term bias provides me with a clear plan for results.

🛰️Final Dispatch

A Stratatrader embraces fear and the unknown, with measured risk and control.

When we look for hope and only face rejection.
It can change how we feel moving forward, or paralyze our actions.
Rejection is feedback, the choice is yours to overcome.

Stratatrader signing off Star Gate Log 016.